Forecasts Commentary
Last updated:
September 2009
The Ministry of Tourism forecasts provide expectations on the future tourism demand in New Zealand. The forecasts are intended to assist the tourism sector in decision making and planning.
Tourism Forecasts Summary Tables (PDF 81KB)
Tourism Forecasts Expenditure Summary Tables (PDF 71KB)
Tourism Forecasts Pivot Tables
New Zealand Tourism Forecasts 2009 - 2015
Released August 2009
Forecasting Context
This year’s forecasting programme has been strongly influenced by the global recession. The contraction in most major economies has had an impact on travel activity worldwide, with the United Nations World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) expecting a decline in global visitor arrivals of 4-6% in 2009. Recent data released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggest that the global economy will begin to grow again in 2010, although the recovery is expected to be slow, cautious and uneven.
The recent outbreak of Influenza A (H1N1) has created additional uncertainty around the short-term outlook for tourism. The impact on travel to date has broad similarities to the early impact caused by SARS in 2003. SARS generated a sharp but temporary decline in international travel, particularly within Asian markets, but travel patterns returned to normal a few months later.
These influences have created a challenging environment for inbound tourism to New Zealand over the next 12 months. Long-haul arrivals will be most affected over this period, but these falls are likely to be partially offset by further short-haul growth out of Australia.
The outlook beyond 2010 becomes positive as world economies improve and normal travel patterns are re-established.
The net effect is a softening of forecast growth rates relative to previous years.
International Visitor Arrivals
Visitor arrivals are forecast to increase by 18.6% over the seven-year forecast period. This represents a total increase over the forecast period of 455,000 arrivals and an average increase of 2.5% per annum.
Visitor Expenditure
Total visitor expenditure is forecast to increase from $14.0 billion in 2008 to $18.1 billion in 2015, up by $4.1 billion or 29.6%, averaging 3.8% per annum. The growth will be driven by an additional $2.3 billion international visitor spend (up 38.1% from $5.9b to $8.2b) and $1.9 billion domestic visitor spend (up 23.3% from $8.1b to $9.9b).
Outbound Travel by New Zealand Residents
Outbound trips are forecast to fall by 3.8% in 2009 and by a further 1.1% in 2010 . A strong catch-up period is expected in 2011-12 followed by a return to trend growth that will increase outbound trips to 2.23 million by 2015. This represents a total increase over the forecast period of 13.3% (262,000 trips) and an average increase of 1.8% per annum.
Domestic Trips
Domestic trips by New Zealand resident are forecast to increase from 51.1 million in 2008 to 53.7 million in 2015, up by 2.6 million or 5.1%, averaging 0.7% per annum. The growth will be driven by an additional 0.6 million overnight trips (up 3.6%) and 2.0 million day trips (up 5.9%).
Visitor nights
Total visitor nights are forecast to increase from 102 million in 2008 to 111 million in 2015, up by 8.7 million or 8.5%, averaging 1.2% per annum. The growth will be driven by an additional 7.0 million international visitor nights (up 14.4% from 48.7 to 55.8 million) and 1.6 million domestic visitor nights (up 3.1% from 53.3 to 55.0 million).
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