Forecasts Commentary

Last updated: May 2008

Caveat on the Forecasts

Significant changes to the global economy over the past six months mean that the Ministry of Tourism’s 2008-2014 tourism forecasts need to be treated with caution, particularly for the outlook over the next 1-2 years.

The latest Ministry of Tourism forecasts provide a set of expectations on the future tourism demand in New Zealand. The forecasts are intended to assist the tourism sector decision-making and planning.

Tourism Forecasts Summary Report (487 KB)

New Zealand Tourism Forecasts 2008 - 2014

Released July 2008

Tourism Forecasts

Over the next seven years, 2008-2014, New Zealand tourism is forecast to continue to grow with international tourism growing faster than domestic tourism.

The forecasts indicate that the long term prospects for tourism remain positive.

International Visitor Arrivals

Arrivals are forecast to increase from 2.46 million in 2007 to 3.08 million in 2014. This represents growth of 26% (or 628,000 visitors). The average annual growth rate is 3.3%.

This is a lower growth expectation than in previous series at 4.0% per annum (3.17 million in 2013). This assessment is influenced by a number of factors - including expected global economic growth to be slower, rising airfares (due to soaring fuel prices), higher inflation (driven primarily by rising food, transport and housing costs) and the persistent high New Zealand dollar.

The forecasts for the next two years are for a more modest growth of 1.2% (2008) and 2.4% (2009), but are more positive in the longer term, particularly in the Rugby World Cup year with an expected 5.5% growth in 2011.

Almost 80% (498,000) of the forecast increase in visitors will come from the six markets - the largest contribution is expected to come from Australia (up 298,000 or 31%), followed by China (up 96,000 or 80%), UK (up 45,000 or 16%), US (up 21,000 or 10%), Canada (up 19,000 or 40%) and India (up 18,000 or 83%).

The Japan and South Korea markets are expected to decrease by 10% (12,000) and 8% (8,000) respectively.

Visitor numbers from our largest market Australia are expected to reach one million by 2009, up from 950,000 in 2007.

Domestic Trips

Domestic trips are forecast to increase from 49.5 million in 2007 to 52.7 million, up by 3.2 million or 6.4%, averaging 0.9% per annum. The growth will be driven by an additional 0.6 million overnight trips (up 3.5%) and 2.5 million day trips (up 8.0%).

Visitor nights

Visitor nights are forecast to increase from 99 million in 2007 to 114 million in 2014, up by 15 million or 15.3%, averaging 2.1% per annum. The growth will be driven by an additional 12.8 million international visitor nights (up from 47.2 to 60.0 million) and 2.4 million domestic visitor nights (up from 52.1 to 54.5 million).

Outbound Travel by New Zealand Residents

Outbound travel is forecast to increase from 1.98 million in 2007 to 2.30 million in 2014, an increase of 326,000 or 16.5%, averaging 2.2% per annum.

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