Caveat on the 2008 - 2014 Forecasts
The Global Economic Climate
Last updated:
February 2009
Significant changes to the global economy over the past six months mean that the Ministry of Tourism’s 2008-2014 tourism forecasts need to be treated with caution, particularly for the outlook over the next 1-2 years.
The forecasts were published in August 2008 and had factored in a difficult 1-2 years ahead for the New Zealand tourism industry, with modest growth in 2008 (1.2%) and 2009 (2.4%).
Since the forecasts were set, however, the global economic situation has worsened which is affecting tourism demand around the world. International visitor arrivals to New Zealand have slowed (year to November 2008 is down 0.6%), especially over the past quarter. While the key markets of Australia and Europe are fairing best, North America has softened and Asian markets have been sharply affected.
As a result, the industry expects a decline in arrivals over the 2008/09 summer, with considerable uncertainty over the outlook for the winter and next summer seasons.
In order to establish a sharper view of the outlook, the Ministry of Tourism is developing additional information streams. It is examining how New Zealand tourism reacts to the periodic ‘shocks’ that affect the global system and is preparing an ongoing survey of the recent performance of operators and their future expectations.
This information will be available in late February and will inform how the Ministry’s forecasts will be updated to reflect the 2009 operating environment, including whether there will be an interim update of the forecasts in early 2009, or a full revision mid-year.
As such, the Ministry of Tourism 2008-14 forecasts are overstating actual level of tourism activity in New Zealand over 2008 and 2009. It is considered, however, that the forecasts set out a fair representation of the total long-term outlook for tourism in New Zealand, although there have been shifts between markets that need to be taken into account.
Revised forecasts will be released by the Ministry by mid 2009.
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