New Zealand Tourism Forecasts 2004-2010
Last updated:
April 2008
Media Release
19 August 2004
The Ministry of Tourism today released the Tourism Research Council New Zealand’s tourism forecasts covering the period 2004-2010.
“The forecasts provide a set of expectations on the future tourism demand and are intended to further enhance decision-making for the private and public sectors,” commented Lex Henry, Chair of the Tourism Research Council New Zealand.
The forecasts set out growth of 5.8% per annum for international visitor arrivals to reach 3.1 million arrivals in 2010, and growth of 8.5% per annum for international visitor expenditure to reach $11.3 billion in 2010.
Combined with $11.9 billion of domestic tourism activity, total tourism expenditure is forecast to reach $23 billion in 2010, an increase of $8.4 billion or 57% from 2003.
“In essence, the forecasts contain no surprises – they reflect the consistent and sustained performance of tourism over an extended period,” said Mr Henry.
“This forecasting exercise and its results are very important for tourism as we can make better decisions without being influenced by some of the swings in confidence that can occur.
“The establishment of an environment where tourism is well informed by comprehensive sector research is key to its development as a sustainable industry – both as an industry to work or invest in, and as an important and positive contributor to the wider community in New Zealand.”
A key feature of the forecasting programme is the regional breakdowns that have been prepared. These are the best articulation of regional tourism activity and this year these are set out at Regional Tourism Organisation level – which is the most relevant organisational level for tourism in our regions.
The outputs of the forecasting programme can be found on the TRCNZ website www.trcnz.govt.nz. A summary booklet is produced, as well as full reports in international and domestic tourism. Full reports on RTO-level tourism activity are also on this site.
Key Tourism Forecast Results: 2004-2010
- International Visitor Arrivals - up 1 million, 48% (from 2.1m to 3.1m)
- Domestic Trips (day and overnight) - up 4 million, 7% (from 60m to 64m)
- Visitor Nights (commercial and private) - up 26 million, 24% (from 105m to 130m)
- Visitor Spend (international and domestic) - up $8.4 billion, 57% (from $14.8b to $23.2b)
- Overseas Trips by NZ Residents - up 0.5 million, 36% (from 1.4m to 1.9m
Contact:
Bruce Bassett
Manager Research
Ministry of Tourism
04 498 7448
021 609 674
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